March 2011 newsletter
See how local real estate is doing now.
Now simplified and expanded, with plenty of charts for the analytical types and plain explanations for everyone else, and broadened geographically to cover recent real estate trends from Burlingame to the South Bay. Find out what's hot and not in local real estate.
Still offering hand-crafted and carefully charted statistics you won't find anywhere else, now expanded to show recent trends for these eleven local sub-markets:
And now including seven leading indicators for the Silicon Valley housing market.
|
First, this month's summary: Heard that the rich are suddenly buying homes? They certainly are here, where the top end came from nowhere—and I do mean nowhere—to turn in a decent performance. What's next, Silicon Valley IPOs? Why yes, in fact. The Era of Good Feelings doesn't extend all the way down the price range, but most local markets turned in solid if unspectacular comebacks from their forced retirements late last year. Despite the up tick, there's no denying it: for the second month in a row, average sales price per sq. ft. is down month-over-month in every price range except the top end. Is double-dip slouching toward the mid-Peninsula and South Bay? Seems hard to believe, given the level of energy in local real estate, but one hundred people through an open house doesn't mean one hundred buyers for that house, or for any house. Are we seeing lots and lots of pent-up demand, or lots and lots of tire kickers? Time for real buyers to stand up! |
Next, a look at the month-over-month trend in sales prices per square foot:
Next, for historical context, a comparison of sales price per square foot between February 2006, 2010 and 2011:
Next, seven leading indicators for the Silicon Valley housing market.
| indicator | one-year trend | short-term trend | effect on real estate |
| San Mateo County unemployment | down | down | good |
| Santa Clara County unemployment | down | down | good |
| local business confidence | up | up | good |
| Silicon Valley VC Index | up | up | good |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | down | down | good |
| NASDAQ Composite | up | down | bad |
| Bloomberg Silicon Valley index | up | down | bad |
And finally, a more in-depth look at what's hot and not in local real estate, using the month-over-month trend in real estate's two most reliable indicators:
mid-Peninsula top-end single-family residences (SFR):
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| suddenly warm | mixed | mixed |
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| warm | cooling | warming |
San Mateo and Burlingame upper midrange SFR:
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| warm-ish | mixed | mixed |
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| hot | warming | warming |
San Mateo and Burlingame midrange SFR:
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| hot | mixed | mixed |
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| warm | mixed | warming |
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| improving from cool to warm-ish | mixed | mixed |
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| warm-ish | cooling | warming |
South Bay condos and townhomes:
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| cool | cooling | warming |
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| hot | mixed | mixed |
|
hot or not? |
13-month trend | 1-month trend |
| warm | warming | warming |
Mid-Peninsula top-end SFR: Homes 2001 sq.ft. or more in top-end Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Woodside and Portola Valley; Los Altos; Los Altos Hills; and Atherton.
Mid-Peninsula midrange SFR: Homes 2000 sq.ft. or less in entry-level neighborhoods of Palo Alto and Menlo Park; all of Mountain View; and Redwood City and San Carlos west of El Camino.
San Mateo and Burlingame upper midrange SFR: Homes in the Aragon, Baywood and San Mateo Park neighborhoods of San Mateo, plus Burlingame west of El Camino.
South Bay upper midrange SFR: Homes in Cupertino, plus the neighborhoods of Sunnyvale, Saratoga, San Jose and Santa Clara with Cupertino schools.
San Mateo and Burlingame midrange SFR: Homes in San Mateo neighborhoods west of El Camino (except Aragon, Baywood and San Mateo Park) and Burlingame neighborhoods east of El Camino.
Mid-Peninsula townhouses: Two-plus level CID (Common Interest Development) 2000 sq.ft. or less in Los Altos, Menlo Park, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Redwood City, Redwood Shores and Sunnyvale.
Mid-Peninsula condos: Single-level CID (Common Interest Development) 2000 sq.ft. or less in the same cities.
South Bay midrange SFR: Homes in Campbell and adjacent San Jose neighborhoods (MLS Area 15) and the Cambrian area of San Jose (Area 14).
South Bay condos and townhomes: Homes in Campbell and adjacent San Jose, Cambrian and Santa Clara.
Mid-Peninsula affordable SFR (Single-Family Residences): Homes at least twenty years old in East Palo Alto east and west of 101; Menlo Park east of 101 (Belle Haven); Redwood City, San Carlos and Belmont east of El Camino; and San Mateo neighborhoods east of 101, plus MLS area 416 Bowie Estate west of 101 but east of El Camino.
South Bay affordable SFR: Homes in Central (downtown) San Jose (MLS Area 9) except Rose Garden.
Methodology: For sales price per square foot, a rolling three-month average to minimize statistically irrelevant differences from month to month yet capture the overall trend; then adjusted to the average size of the last 1000 homes sold to minimize distortions in sales price due to variations in average property size sold for each period. For days on market, a rolling three-month average. For absorption, the one month average. All sales except short sales are included.
Thinking of buying or selling? Please contact me at jfyten@cbnorcal.com. This is not a solicitation if your home is listed with another broker. My Department of Real Estate license number is 01044243.